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Conformity of Science

Unlike a mathematical proof, a scientific theory is empirical and is always open to falsification if new evidence is presented. That is, no theory is ever considered strictly certain. Instead, science is proud to make predictions with great probability, bearing in mind that the most likely event is not always what actually happens. 

During the Yom Kippur War, cognitive psychologist Daniel Kahneman was asked to explain why one squad of aircraft had returned safely, yet a second squad on the exact same operation had lost all of its planes. Rather than conduct a study in the hope of a new hypothesis, Kahneman simply reiterated the importance of expecting some coincidences in life, explaining that absurdly rare things, by definition, occasionally happen. In this sense, probabilities can run counter to our intuitions, which rely heavily on heuristics including mental availability.

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